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NLE Poll #3 - Which NLE do you foresee DOMINATES in next 5 years?


Poll

Which NLE do you foresee DOMINATING in the next 5 years?
Adobe Premiere 17
Avid Media Composer 2
Edius 0
Final Cut Pro 5,6, or 7 0
Final Cut Pro X 5
iMovie 0
Media 100 0
Open Source such as Lightworks 2
Pinnacle Studio 0
Sony Vegas Pro 1
Windows Movie Maker 0
Other (please specify in thread) 0
Total Votes: 27
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Re: NLE Poll #3 - Which NLE do you foresee DOMINATES in next 5 years?

by Dallas Lammiman on Mon Sep 12, 2011 10:02am

It depends what you mean Paul, “Which NLE will DOMINATE during the next 5 years?” or “Which NLE will be DOMINATE 5 years from now?”.

“Which NLE will DOMINATE during the next 5 years?”
Adobe. They are growing and strong, they have a large following that will be hard to catch. Apple did, but doesn’t any more.

“Which NLE will be DOMINATE 5 years from now?”
It could be anybody’s guess, a lot can happen in 5 years and their is no guarantee that Adoby will still dominate the market at that point. I could see Apple, or any number of other editing apps catching up by that point.

Wile Adoby has the edge for right now, they just lost their most direct competitor. Apple and Adoby were virtually the same program and the sped development of both apps forward in a fantastic way. It was almost like having 2 teams working on the same app, if one app got a feature, you could be sure that the other would to in very short order. But now Adoby is alone, and there is a good possibility that forward progress will slow without their rival to spur them on. Last time Adoby was in this situation where they were so dominant as to be the only real NLE option they eventually stagnated to the point of firing their dev team (who went off to make what we used to know as FCP). It is nothing against Adoby any company would face the same challenge. Competition spurs on growth and advancement.

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Dallas Lammiman
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Re: NLE Poll #3 - Which NLE do you foresee DOMINATES in next 5 years?

by Sam Klejwa on Mon Sep 12, 2011 2:04pm

Scott, I could see that being true for the next two years, but unless Adobe wakes up and realizes that FCP X is something that editors oohed and ahhed at before they found out features were missing, they’ll have all those editors jumping ship as soon as a few features get added back to FCP.

As it is, I’m still on FCP 7. I’m not going to jump ship while I wait six months or so for the new version to have its kinks worked out. But I’m champing at the bit to get my hands on FCP X, because it looks like it edits the way I think. No other NLE has done that for me.

In a world of unlimited funds, you would be right, but I’ve talked to those in the biz, and everybody is pretty disgusted with FCP X, AND they need to do something about it. Now. Businesses have to keep working, so a workflow switch is going to have to happen, people can’t just wait around for months for Apple to fix their awful “iMovie Pro”. Market share for FCP will drop significantly, and if Avid or Premiere keep going strong, FCP will never get that market share back. If you’re going into the biz, it’s looking like compatibility issues will dictate that you learn Premiere or Avid.

-Sam

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Sam Klejwa
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Re: NLE Poll #3 - Which NLE do you foresee DOMINATES in next 5 years?

by Hunter Starnes on Tue Sep 13, 2011 4:00pm

Good thoughts Dallas! I hope that Adobe doesn’t stagnate as well and that Apple gets it’s game on. And you are right Sam, we can’t live on promises. Editors waited for a year for FCPx and then they were told to wait a little longer for full functionality. It is also a little disturbing that they didn’t think of something as basic as xml export and multicam editing.

I think Adobe will dominate for several reasons. They are being very aggressive right now with updates. They have a fantastic workflow between apps that is simply unbeatable. It gets along with Avid and Final Cut projects. I am also looking for them to incorporate some of the features from FCPx in the future. Background rendering would be nice, although I hardly render effects in my timeline, the Mercury playback engine is just too good. The metadata support is there and it is very good.

Apple’s loyalty to the professional market is questionable. They just have too many product lines that are more profitable.

I think that if someone was looking to upgrade from FCP 7 or just get into the market, then Adobe is the answer and probably will be for the next few years.

[ Edited: Tue Sep 13, 2011 4:05pm by Hunter Starnes ]
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Re: NLE Poll #3 - Which NLE do you foresee DOMINATES in next 5 years?

by Hunter Starnes on Tue Sep 13, 2011 4:18pm

Paul Munger wrote:

The trackless editing design of FCP X may just be that improvement.  At this moment, all the others look and act the same, multiple tracks that can very easily misalign. But just Imagine never ever getting out of sync because it’s impossible to do so.  Imagine never having to render because it’s all done in the background.  Imagine being able to find any clip or portions of clips anywhere through massive metadata information and customizable keywords. These any many other of the core editing features are extremely attractive.

Almost all this Premiere Pro has. It is almost impossible to get out of sync if you group or link your clips that are supposed to stay in sync. Sometimes when I try to do a ripple edit, Premiere Pro will not let me.

Rendering a movie file in the background is already possible with Media Encoder. I have never needed to render a file into another format for editing. The only thing I would like is background rendering of certain effects in the timeline. Although many effects are accelerated and do not need it.

Metadata information in Premiere is very good. It just isn’t as automated as FCPx. We add all that while reviewing our takes.

I would like better handling of audio tracks. I have gotten used to it but it is far from ideal. Another thing I miss from Sony Vegas is the ability to quickly duplicate clips in the timeline. You have to copy/paste.

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Hunter Starnes
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Re: NLE Poll #3 - Which NLE do you foresee DOMINATES in next 5 years?

by Ben Thompson on Thu Sep 15, 2011 1:32pm

Rendering a movie file in the background is already possible with Media Encoder. I have never needed to render a file into another format for editing. The only thing I would like is background rendering of certain effects in the timeline. Although many effects are accelerated and do not need it.

That’s not quite the same. With background rendering doens’t it contiue to re-render the timeline that you are working on untill you are ready to output. When you output it doesn’t render at all. It just copies the file.
When I used Pinnacle Studio you had that option. I’m surprised that Adobe doesn’t. You should be able to put in the specs you want to output, and by the time you are done editing it will have a completed file.

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Re: NLE Poll #3 - Which NLE do you foresee DOMINATES in next 5 years?

by Hunter Starnes on Thu Sep 15, 2011 2:38pm

Ben Thompson wrote:

That’s not quite the same. With background rendering doens’t it contiue to re-render the timeline that you are working on untill you are ready to output. When you output it doesn’t render at all. It just copies the file.
When I used Pinnacle Studio you had that option. I’m surprised that Adobe doesn’t. You should be able to put in the specs you want to output, and by the time you are done editing it will have a completed file.

I looked it up and you are right, it isn’t the same. What FCPx does is take your rendered preview files and creates the movie out of that. When you render effects in Premiere, a dialogue box pops up and you have to wait for it to finish. Although there is the option to use those rendered files in Media Encoder when you export.

It is something I will have to study more on, but my gut feeling wants to know why I would render to one format for previews and then re-compress that into a mpeg4, mpeg2 or Tiff sequence for delivery? Great for dailies or same day edits but maybe not for final output? But there might be something I am missing and am not fully understanding the concept.

It is something that Adobe will probably incorporate soon. Hope so as it would be nice where speed is essential.

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Hunter Starnes
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Re: NLE Poll #3 - Which NLE do you foresee DOMINATES in next 5 years?

by John-Clay Burnett on Sat Oct 01, 2011 7:58pm

I am switching from Final Cut Suite to Adobe Production Suite.

I would like to see Apple get back in the game for professional editors but until then I am going with Adobe.  grin

Just finished a feature length documentary project in Final Cut 7 [nightmare] and there is no way FC X could have done what we needed. In fact we half used the Adobe suite to do things that Final Cut couldn’t just to get the project done.

In the next 5 years…I vote Adobe!

[ Edited: Sat Oct 01, 2011 8:00pm by John-Clay Burnett ]
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Re: NLE Poll #3 - Which NLE do you foresee DOMINATES in next 5 years?

by Ben Thompson on Sat Oct 01, 2011 8:48pm

(Titling in premiere is a whole another story. However you can open the clip in after effects and get a really good title.),

I now stand with more experience. I now know how not only make a title , but also how to edit it. (It could be slightly more user friendly in this area.)

Right now I’m creating a website. As a filmmaker these days a website is part of the job. You could hire someone do it. Or you could design it. If designing a website was easy and straight forward. While you could buy the master edition and get dreamweaver. I know html so I do some by hand. But where Adobe shines again is that as a film website there is going to be videos and other media. Well, adobe production premiume has Flash proffessional and catalyist included in the package. You could design a whole site with those tools. Defintly the most complex and sensitve things (e.g. trailer.)
Adobe isn’t just about editing. It is software that helps you get the job (The whole job) done.

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Re: NLE Poll #3 - Which NLE do you foresee DOMINATES in next 5 years?

by Benjamin Koch on Mon Oct 03, 2011 4:43pm

I am no editing professional… But my opinion is that cheaper, easier to use editors, with a lot of features will dominate 5 years from now. Lightworks is at the top of the list. Premiere may be good now… But lightworks will become the next competition.

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Benjamin Koch
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Re: NLE Poll #3 - Which NLE do you foresee DOMINATES in next 5 years?

by Ben Thompson on Mon Oct 03, 2011 5:22pm

Benjamin Koch wrote:

Lightworks is at the top of the list. Premiere may be good now… But lightworks will become the next competition.

Have you tried lightworks? I have. Never again. (I would rather use a “consumer” video editor then that.)

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Ben Thompson
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