It depends what you mean Paul, “Which NLE will DOMINATE during the next 5 years?” or “Which NLE will be DOMINATE 5 years from now?”.
“Which NLE will DOMINATE during the next 5 years?”
Adobe. They are growing and strong, they have a large following that will be hard to catch. Apple did, but doesn’t any more.
“Which NLE will be DOMINATE 5 years from now?”
It could be anybody’s guess, a lot can happen in 5 years and their is no guarantee that Adoby will still dominate the market at that point. I could see Apple, or any number of other editing apps catching up by that point.
Wile Adoby has the edge for right now, they just lost their most direct competitor. Apple and Adoby were virtually the same program and the sped development of both apps forward in a fantastic way. It was almost like having 2 teams working on the same app, if one app got a feature, you could be sure that the other would to in very short order. But now Adoby is alone, and there is a good possibility that forward progress will slow without their rival to spur them on. Last time Adoby was in this situation where they were so dominant as to be the only real NLE option they eventually stagnated to the point of firing their dev team (who went off to make what we used to know as FCP). It is nothing against Adoby any company would face the same challenge. Competition spurs on growth and advancement.